Possible Schedule for the next 36 Months

January 7, 2018

January 10 – Hope David Davis’s and Philip Hammond’s meetings in Germany go well today.  If not achieving what they are seeking yet, then not refused either.

January 8 – UK/EU – I imagine if someone were anticipating what the next 36 months would look like with regard to the UK’s leaving the EU, it could go something like this.

January – February 2018 – a practical transition deal drawn up, as soon as possible, but before March.

March 2018 mid month – achieving the framework of a trade deal in principle, the negotiation running alongside the transition at first, then speeding up alone.

November 2018 – achieving a workable, in principle, trade deal.

March 2019 – an agreed trade deal.

Then 21/24 months of ironing out the problems.


Border of the Republic with Northern Ireland

November 27, 2017

November 27th – Should the UK consider producing a written statement saying it will commit to doing its very best to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and  The Republic of Ireland, perhaps by using Bertie Ahern’s ‘technology and trust’. This concept has potential if Ireland (and the EU and the UK) want an open border at a time when the UK is leaving the EU. It could be that compromise is needed and leeway and a small sacrifice of regulations in certain cases.

Brexit Negotiations

November 10, 2017

November 10 – Brexit Meeting – Hope this latest meeting yields some significant progress in the negotiations, particularly in bi-lateral cooperation, and support those Brexiteers who believe a degree of increase  in the financial settlement would prove profitable. Whilst not agreeing with an increase of many tens of billions, I think doubling the 18 billion pounds mentioned should be considered  with a cap of 40, if the agreement is very good.

Brexit – The Vital Key

October 11, 2017

As expected, the most important condition of the three key conditions is the financial settlement and there’s a Council meeting soon that offers the first chance of starting the negotiations for the trade deal; negotiations highly significant for both sides.

If the EU puts in a definite offer, even if it’s 40 billion against the UK’s 20, it could be construed as the start of the financial settlement negotiations and allow a trade  deal to begin. I belive the UK are serious about leaving without a deal, if it ever comes to it, so I hope the EU takes a much needed initiative in this area.

Brexit – The Settlement – Part two

September 2, 2017

September 2 – Right, so the figure that appears to be coming out of the EU is 60 billion euros, that is about 55 billion pounds which is a promising starting point. The settlement will have various sections , cash, ongoing payments, payments due to come back, etc. So the two figures one going up and the other coming down have the potential to meet somewhere. I can’t see that a practical and effective attitude towards the settlement issue will have any detrimental effect on the forthcoming election. On the contrary. To have this issue on the way to being solved shows competence.

Brexit – The Settlement

August 31, 2017

August 31 – The Settlement – Neither side wants to openly commit to a figure, but maybe it’s time for the EU to put something forward.

Now I imagine they’ve got a realistic one as well as the colossal one, which makes people scream ‘no way’ in the UK media.  Let’s say the realistic one is somewhere around £50 billion as an opener. I expect the EU negotiators have seen the UK polls on £36 billion UK limit and even on the £20 bn starter. So there wouldn’t be any point in suggesting the really big numbers like 90, 80, 70, or 60. So it’s probably about 50 and they’re prepared to be flexible; and between 36 and 47 there’s an interesting 11 difference and that 10 in the EIB and other areas of continued co-operation.

Of course the 16 up to 36 would have to be justified. But you see where this is going , this thing is doable and I was collecting signatures for Bill Cash’s referendum campaign in1991.  If the settlement looks possible, then the other two conditions for the beginning of the trade talks will fall into place. Everyone think about it, especially the EU.

Brexit – 3rd Negotiation Meeting

August 28, 2017

August 28 – I hope the Brexiteers will now get practical. The Remainers have come up with a substantial idea for the transition period and if there’s a vacuum, people will step in.  I’m not saying the proposal is right, but it’s attracting a lot of attention and the above meeting needs to move on. So offer a ceiling of 36 billion. I thought 35, but go for the figure that I imagine the mandarins have previously suggested to the Government, saying: if we were to offer thirty six billion cash (in stages) not counting other areas that might be financially involved, what would your response be? No matter what the EU wants included in the methodology, if there is a cap, the UK knows the final destination.

Central Banks, Brexit Settlement

August 26, 2017

August 26 11am – Brexit Settlement – The August Negotiation meeting takes place next week and the Northern Irish Border and Citizens Rights issues are looking promising, but the issue of the Brexit Settlement is due to arise and could be less easy a subject.

My thoughts on this are as follows: a  floor figure of £20 billion to cover the year 2019/20 and a preferred ceiling of £30 billion with a top ceiling of £35. The billions between twenty and whatever the ceiling turns out to be should be justified to the UK by the EU and while areas to be included, such a pensions, may be agreed, the actual amount is open to negotiation. Also open to negotiation would be the about ten billion that is presently residing in the EIB, although I would prefer the UK remained a member. Extra annual commitments after Brexit for those institutions, facilities and organisations, the UK would wish to continue membership of would be paid for separately from the settlement.

In return for this good offer, the EU/UK trade negotiation would start in October as scheduled, during the two year interim transition period, the UK could make its trade deals internationally, and the Brexit Court of Arbitration would come into effect.

Jackson Hole Symposium – a calm, satisfactory  symposium as hoped. on Twitter August 23.

Greece – as hoped, the IMF have agreed an in principle loan to Greece of £1.3bn contingent on other EU members proceeding with debt relief.

The Brexit Papers

August 17, 2017

August 17 – the second of the papers on UK policy position on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland was received quite well. The next is probably on Monday 21st and I have every confidence progress on the three key issues will be sufficient for trade talks to start in October.

The Brexit Papers

August 17, 2017

August 17 – The second of the papers on the border between Northern Ireland and Eire was received quite well. The next paper is due next week, on Monday perhaps.