Brexit Progress

July 22, 2017

July 22 – I’m feeling positive about the progress of Brexit so far and tweeted I was satisfied with the progress of the first full session of the negotiation talks. The Irish Foreign Minister said he was satisfied with the direction of the talks. Chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier has suggested Norway as an independent adjudicator on EU citizens rights, which takes further what this weblog has previously suggested. There was a little trade negotiation on the sidelines. In addition, the pre-Brexit trade talks between UK and US start next week, which is encouraging and there is every reason to think there will be considerable clarification and progress at the Brexit talks in August.

Brexit Negotiation July 2017

July 15, 2017

July 15 10.30am and also twitter – I expect the meeting lasting from Monday July 17th to July 20th to yield significant results on the three key issues and the start of trade talks, which I anticipate will begin after the September meeting. Michel Barnier has been saying helpful things about flexibility on the role of the European Court. I like his practicality. Perhaps there will be a quid pro quo on the UK side with regard to EU citizens’ rights and both sides will agree on independent arbitration of some kind, e.g. one EU judge, one UK judge and one respected independent figure with the casting vote. Work on the Northern Ireland/Eire border has already started and I hope is going well and both sides realise inordinate sums for the settlement will not fly, so no 80, 60 or 50 billion bills, but a bill will be arrived at in due course and paid. I quite like £23-25 billion and so do others,  in addition to our fees up to the 31st March 2019. The settlement will be paid over an agreed period and be in addition to any areas in which cooperation still obtains. Yes, let’s see some real progress this meeting.

Brexit Transition

July 10, 2017

July 10 – Thoughts on UK/EU Brexit Transition period – Ideally the UK leaves the EU and retains access to the Single Market, banking passports and  other benefits, but saying that is not going to happen, what might? The UK leaves in March 2019 and is given two grace years, but failing that, one grace year of leaving with benefits retained, then a year of some conditions, and another year of more conditions, with everyone getting used to what this means and then the full conditions that enable reasonable access. Concessions on EU nationals in the UK so that the EU is satisfied might be one thing that is offered in exchange for a very gentle withdrawal of some Single Market and other rights. It will be interesting to see what other people suggest, including the Labour leaders. Saying the UK is going to leave the EU with all that means, how would they keep hold of the access they are so determined on?

G20

July 7, 2017

July 7 8.15am – G20 – Tweeted –  ‘Like the positivity and flexibility of the G20.’ Later in the afternoon, both Presidents Trump and Putin said they were looking forward to positive results.

Greece – 8.5 billion euro tranche released in 7.7 and 0.8 parts. Good news.

July 5, 2017

July 5 – UK – Commented recently, June 29, on a RSA article, The Art of the Deal by Charlotte Alldritt, of my confidence in the Brexit process and that I could see the stirrings of reformation in the way society runs.

US – Also read Kim Sengupta in the i newspaper today and was interested in his ‘Hamburger diplomacy.’ I remember there was speculation that 6 Party Talks might restart when the negotiations with Iran were in progress. So is a meeting between the leaders of the US and North Korea likely? With the G20 meeting in two days, it’s a question that probably will be asked; and where would it take place?

Qatar – watching Qatari Foreign Minister speaking at Chatham House today, 1pm, live.

 

Brexit Negotiation – Ex-Pats Rights

June 24, 2017

June 24 – The negotiation on EU Nationals’ rights seemed to open in an encouraging way on the 22nd June. People are talking and prepared to make a deal. There has to be one and there will be sufficient compromise to enable it.

There are a number of possibilities. For example – Either the five years is negotiable and jurisdiction over EU ex-pats in the UK is held within the UK, or it’s held within the UK with EU Court opinion taken into account. Is there a veto by the EU Court? If not, can the EU Court take the decision to an outside body? Or could decisions on ex-pats go straight to an overarching agreed outside body? So, the negotiation has started off meaningfully and I like it so far.

UK and Greece

June 10, 2017

June 10 – 5.15pm – UK – following the election result and the resignation of the special advisers, and the assistance of the DUP, the Conservative party should, for the good of the country, now rally and stand together with the first negotiation meeting just over a week away. Angela Merkel says the EU is ready and eager to negotiate. This is good and I feel sure the UK’s negotiating team are well-prepared too. The first meeting is fairly straightforward: the structure and scheduling of the negotiation meetings, the three key issues identified and not likely to have insurmountable conditions. So it’s looks promising and I’m eager to hear how the process starts off.

But first we have that important Eurogroup meeting on Greece on Thursday. The signing off of the 2nd review seems there, and the debt restructuring details in prospect, and talks about regenerating Greece due to be discussed. Are you still going for the World Bank loan? I hope this will be a competent, positive meeting, boding well for the bigger one a few days later. It’s all within grasp.

UK Election

June 9, 2017

June 9 – 8.40am – on twitter at 7.15am – saying the Conservatives get the 318 projected, they should gain the support of the DUP and continue in government. The EU should not defer the opening of the negotiation talks scheduled for the 19th. It would reassure the Markets, including and importantly the European, and stablise the Pound. If they don’t get an overall majority with the DUP, they should still form a majority party government, and with the DUP, expect to attract others to give them their majority. A lot of work has been done on the first negotiation meeting, the agreement on the three key issues is almost there, don’t throw this progress away.

Later, liked Donald Tusk’s letter to Teresa May about the 19th proceeding as arranged.

UK Election June 8

June 7, 2017

June 7 – So it’s come around again and I’m shouting on Twitter protect Brexit! As a 25 year supporter I can do no other. And I’m not worried about that first negotiation meeting like writers in the Guardian. The three key issues are almost there in principle. Just one or two sticking points remain but that’s what you have negotiation for. And both sides need and want a good result and I feel will get it. So go out and vote. Vote for those who are most likely to push Brexit through successfully.

Paris Accord

June 2, 2017

June2 – US and Paris Accord – In President Trump’s leaving the Accord statement, he included the important caveat that he would rejoin under the right terms, which means the commission, the renegotiation process, will be set up, as hoped. It had seemed likely from the information coming out of the administration, the President would leave and with no wish for delay and no negotiating whilst within the Accord, a separate approach was the remaining option, other than leaving full stop. Perhaps  those opposing a renegotiation for the US will reconsider.